A great shame
Reading the daily news, I stumbled onto this article today. These days, rarely are the news surprising, particularly those coming from the middle east. the headlines have been static for months: another bombing in baghdad, another denial by iran to stop their nuclear activities. Even the holocaust denial statements regularly coming of tehran are almost losing their impact on the international community. The following article published in Jeruslam Post is, on the other hand, deeply disturbing. The fact that israel itself has turned away from those who it was originally created to support is a betrayal is an unparalleled moral failure.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1170359865046&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
Friday, February 16, 2007
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
the new cold war - not as cold, but windy
The State Department press release issued on February 13 following the conference on Security Policy in Munich where the Russian president has made his now famous tirade, claims that "no shift is occuring between the US and Russian relations". According to Tony Snow, the White House spokesperson, "...the United States has been working aggressively, including with Russia, to work in a multilateral fashion on a
series of key issues." Is the White House intentionally downplaying what it understood a turning point of transatlantic relations, or is it 'playing stupid'?
The former alternative is unlikely given the strength of the commentary and the choice of venue for its delivery - after all, it could have been also delivered on lower levels and in a more bilateral fashion. One should also not forget Ms. Rice's doctorate in Cold War international relations. If no one else in the White House has received the signal correctly, it would be rather surprising if she did not.
A more plausible proposition would suggest that Putin's speech did succeed in raising some eyebrows in Washington and other capitals, yet its impact is being downplayed for the fear of creating a greater rift. This game of 'downplaying' played by Mr. Snow in his communique today is not so unfounded. First, the US has been once again been 'caught with their pants down' to borrow from a not especially bourgeoise but accurate expression. While Mr. Putin has recently been not as cooperative with his American brothers as his administration was during the early years of his presidency, the strength of his expression and his isolation of the US as the culprit has been of surprise to the US, even given the latest ideological disagreements over the Iraninan sanctions.
The second, and somewhat related reason behind American reluctance to respond in any stronger terms than saying that Russia is an 'important ally', is that Russia is seen as flexing muscles and is not being taken seriously. The Economist estimates Russia is still less of a player than it was since "it no longer has the network of Soviet client states." While the latter maybe true, this does not by any means that Russia is to be ignored in the international relations calculus. In this regard, Mr. Putin's speech served exaclty its purpose - not necessarily insigate a crisis in the cross-atlantic relations, but to remind the various audiences at Munich that hybernation is finished. The bear has long time shaken off the sleep in domestic matters including the high profile trial of Khodorkovsy and the recent oil nationalisations, aka Venezuela but with a different rhetoric.
Moscow's recent power struggles with satellite's states over gas arrangements already showed the western european states that Russia will not tolerate being marginalised in the European politics. Russia's current G8 presidency, although a mockery given these recent dynamics first with Ukraine and then with Belarus, is another reason not to take Russia's ambitions too lighlty.
The Economist may be right in noting that its satellite states are long gone and most wish to get amnesia to forget their soviet past. What it does not pick up on is the alliance of convinience, not necessarily ideology, between Russia and China. Supported by this dynamic, Russia has re-discovered a new source of power, re-established a long forgotten strategy, in addition to its typical natural resource weapon. This strategy previews greater involvement of Russia in the Middle East.
Thus, Russia is not to be ignored not only, and not even primarily, for its recent bullish behaviour vis-a-vis its European neighbours, but its growing willingness to present itself as a viable supporter (read:alternative) to a number of countries in the Middle East, thus re-engaging in the proxy war that characterised the Cold War. This involvement will play itself out not only by military deals with Iran and as analysts suspect other nations and 'factions'. It will also take form (and is already starting to do so) through official high level contacts in the region. Mr. Putin's high level visit to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar this week goes to demonstrate that the Munich tirade was not just a fit for attention, but perhaps a new 'suprise' act in Mr. Puntin's play. Suprise it is, since there have been no Presidential level visits to Saudi Arabia, for one, for approximately 80 years. A second surprise, certainly unnerving for the US, has been the apparent welcome received by the Russian president. A red carpet and a 21 gun salut was awaiting him in Saudi Arabia, a long term US ally, recently disillusioned by the process of Iraq stabilisation and increasingly worried about US inability to contain Iran.
Apparently, Middle East leaders as a whole are taking Russia seriously, and have granted Russia an observer status in the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in 2005. Bilateral relations with the current government of Iran and Hamas are also strong. Saudi Arabia might just follow suit. This act may continue for long after he is gone and Mr. Puntin's appointed successor is sworn in. If so, the superpower confrontation, played out in the Middle East, maybe a deja vu of international relations. Perhaps not a full-blown Cold War, but a wind of the era?
The State Department press release issued on February 13 following the conference on Security Policy in Munich where the Russian president has made his now famous tirade, claims that "no shift is occuring between the US and Russian relations". According to Tony Snow, the White House spokesperson, "...the United States has been working aggressively, including with Russia, to work in a multilateral fashion on a
series of key issues." Is the White House intentionally downplaying what it understood a turning point of transatlantic relations, or is it 'playing stupid'?
The former alternative is unlikely given the strength of the commentary and the choice of venue for its delivery - after all, it could have been also delivered on lower levels and in a more bilateral fashion. One should also not forget Ms. Rice's doctorate in Cold War international relations. If no one else in the White House has received the signal correctly, it would be rather surprising if she did not.
A more plausible proposition would suggest that Putin's speech did succeed in raising some eyebrows in Washington and other capitals, yet its impact is being downplayed for the fear of creating a greater rift. This game of 'downplaying' played by Mr. Snow in his communique today is not so unfounded. First, the US has been once again been 'caught with their pants down' to borrow from a not especially bourgeoise but accurate expression. While Mr. Putin has recently been not as cooperative with his American brothers as his administration was during the early years of his presidency, the strength of his expression and his isolation of the US as the culprit has been of surprise to the US, even given the latest ideological disagreements over the Iraninan sanctions.
The second, and somewhat related reason behind American reluctance to respond in any stronger terms than saying that Russia is an 'important ally', is that Russia is seen as flexing muscles and is not being taken seriously. The Economist estimates Russia is still less of a player than it was since "it no longer has the network of Soviet client states." While the latter maybe true, this does not by any means that Russia is to be ignored in the international relations calculus. In this regard, Mr. Putin's speech served exaclty its purpose - not necessarily insigate a crisis in the cross-atlantic relations, but to remind the various audiences at Munich that hybernation is finished. The bear has long time shaken off the sleep in domestic matters including the high profile trial of Khodorkovsy and the recent oil nationalisations, aka Venezuela but with a different rhetoric.
Moscow's recent power struggles with satellite's states over gas arrangements already showed the western european states that Russia will not tolerate being marginalised in the European politics. Russia's current G8 presidency, although a mockery given these recent dynamics first with Ukraine and then with Belarus, is another reason not to take Russia's ambitions too lighlty.
The Economist may be right in noting that its satellite states are long gone and most wish to get amnesia to forget their soviet past. What it does not pick up on is the alliance of convinience, not necessarily ideology, between Russia and China. Supported by this dynamic, Russia has re-discovered a new source of power, re-established a long forgotten strategy, in addition to its typical natural resource weapon. This strategy previews greater involvement of Russia in the Middle East.
Thus, Russia is not to be ignored not only, and not even primarily, for its recent bullish behaviour vis-a-vis its European neighbours, but its growing willingness to present itself as a viable supporter (read:alternative) to a number of countries in the Middle East, thus re-engaging in the proxy war that characterised the Cold War. This involvement will play itself out not only by military deals with Iran and as analysts suspect other nations and 'factions'. It will also take form (and is already starting to do so) through official high level contacts in the region. Mr. Putin's high level visit to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar this week goes to demonstrate that the Munich tirade was not just a fit for attention, but perhaps a new 'suprise' act in Mr. Puntin's play. Suprise it is, since there have been no Presidential level visits to Saudi Arabia, for one, for approximately 80 years. A second surprise, certainly unnerving for the US, has been the apparent welcome received by the Russian president. A red carpet and a 21 gun salut was awaiting him in Saudi Arabia, a long term US ally, recently disillusioned by the process of Iraq stabilisation and increasingly worried about US inability to contain Iran.
Apparently, Middle East leaders as a whole are taking Russia seriously, and have granted Russia an observer status in the Organisation of the Islamic Conference in 2005. Bilateral relations with the current government of Iran and Hamas are also strong. Saudi Arabia might just follow suit. This act may continue for long after he is gone and Mr. Puntin's appointed successor is sworn in. If so, the superpower confrontation, played out in the Middle East, maybe a deja vu of international relations. Perhaps not a full-blown Cold War, but a wind of the era?
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